PUBLICATIONS

Replication Data for Persistence of Individual and Social Preferences in Rural Settings

This dataset contains the replication data files for the paper Persistence of Individual and Social Preferences in Rural Settings. The study examines the stability of individual and social preferences in rural settings, using the COVID-19 pandemic as a major global shock.

The data comprise a panel of 1,262 agricultural households located across 86 communities in the departments of Huehuetenango, Quich, and San Marcos in Guatemala. Households were interviewed in person at baseline in November-December 2019 and subsequently followed through three annual phone surveys conducted in May-June 2020, 2021, and 2022 to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on individual and social preferences.

The dataset includes information on self-reported preference indicators, as well as household socioeconomic characteristics, dwelling characteristics, asset ownership, and agricultural activities, along with contextual variables measured at the household, community, and municipality levels.

Moving the technology frontiers in African agrifood systems: Lessons from Latin America

Africa’s agrifood systems face a complex set of structural challenges. Low productivity, high vulnerability to climate shocks, fragmented markets, and weak integration into global value chains continue to constrain development. Yet these challenges coexist with significant opportunities. The region’s demographic profile—with more than 50 percent of the population under the age of 25 years—and a projected population growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2025 offer the potential for a demographic dividend that could help drive transformation in agri-food systems.

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic had profound effects on livelihoods across rural populations worldwide. Building on earlier work that examined the initial effects of the pandemic on food security and nutrition among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala, this study offers a longer-term assessment of the impacts and the path to recovery. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households conducted over four rounds between 2019 and 2022, with the first round in person and the subsequent ones by phone. The results show substantial recoveries in food security and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre-pandemic ones for some indicators. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one of the three studied departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by hurricanes, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations took longer to recover. We additionally provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed in person during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26-percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks.

Alineando el financiamiento verde con la política agropecuaria: De los compromisos globales a las soluciones locales

El documento analiza cómo el financiamiento verde puede alinearse con la política agropecuaria para apoyar sistemas agroalimentarios sostenibles frente a presiones ambientales globales como la degradación del suelo, la pérdida de biodiversidad y la variabilidad climática; enfatiza el papel de marcos internacionales como el Acuerdo de París y la necesidad de aumentar el financiamiento climático que llega al sector agrícola; destaca los avances de América Latina y el Caribe en taxonomías verdes y programas como el ABC+ de Brasil, subraya la importancia de sistemas sólidos de monitoreo, reporte y verificación, y revisa la evidencia que muestra que el crédito agropecuario condicionado puede impulsar prácticas sostenibles cuando existen instituciones fuertes y bajos costos de transacción, aunque persisten barreras, especialmente para pequeños productores; para Colombia, identifica tensiones ambientales significativas, desafíos estructurales rurales y avances en políticas como crecimiento verde, agroecología y finanzas climáticas, concluyendo que una mayor coordinación intersectorial, mecanismos financieros adaptativos, enfoques territoriales y estrategias centradas en los productores son esenciales para facilitar una transición justa hacia una productividad agropecuaria sostenible.

Este resumen ha sido proporcionado por inteligencia artificial generativa.

The future of ABPU agriculture: The 2nd MERCUSUR outlook

In today’s complex and uncertain global environment, region-specific agricultural and trade outlooks are more essential than ever. While global projections from institutions such as the OECD-FAO and USDA provide valuable baselines, incorporating local perspectives is essential to capture the specific dynamics of emerging economies that are deeply integrated into international agrifood markets. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is the world’s largest net food-exporting region, playing a central role in stabilizing supplies and reducing price volatility (IFPRI, 2025). Within LAC, Mercosur—Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (ABPU)—accounts for more than half of the region’s agrifood trade, concentrated in oilseeds, cereals, and animal proteins. Over the past two decades, agricultural exports from LAC have more than doubled, consolidating the region’s role as a net contributor to global food availability (Piñeiro et al, 2025a, 2025b). This performance highlights Mercosur’s structural weight in global markets, while also underscoring the climatic, institutional, and infrastructural challenges that call for tailored foresight tools.

Adapting to a changing climate: Strategies for productive and resilient agrifood systems

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) stand at a pivotal juncture for advancing the sustainability and resilience of the region’s agrifood systems. As both a net agricultural exporter and a global biodiversity hotspot, the region faces the challenge of enhancing productivity while safeguarding long-term environmental and social resilience. This chapter offers a forward-looking assessment of how climate variability may affect agricultural productivity and land use through 2050, drawing on climate-adjusted projections to explore potential shifts in yields and crop distribution under mounting climate pressures. Results indicate that climate change could alter comparative advantages, depress yields in certain areas, and lead to significant reconfigurations of cultivation patterns. Nevertheless, substantial opportunities lie in strategic investments in climate-smart practices, resilient infrastructure, and inclusive policies. Outcomes will vary widely across countries and producer types, underscoring the need for tailored, context-specific strategies. Ultimately, LAC’s capacity to anticipate and adapt—through foresight, robust data, and scenario planning—will determine the productivity, sustainability, and resilience of its agrifood systems, and enable the region to remain a central actor in global food systems despite a changing climate.

Reassessing agricultural growth: Introducing a sustainable productivity index for Latin America and the Caribbean

This chapter introduces a sustainable productivity index (SPI) to evaluate agricultural growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) between 1995 and 2021, integrating economic output with environmental costs. While LAC doubled its agricultural output and led global productivity gains during this period, this progress came with significant environmental degradation, including a 50% rise in pollution and pressures on natural resources, such as water stress, soil erosion, and deforestation. The SPI adjusts conventional total factor productivity (TFP) by penalizing undesirable outputs like greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient runoff, offering a more accurate picture of sustainable growth. Findings reveal that while productivity increased by 60%, sustainability-adjusted productivity rose by only 13%, with sharp disparities across subregions. The Southern Cone achieved the highest output and productivity growth but also incurred the steepest environmental costs. Central America and the Andean region recorded moderate gains with varying environmental impacts, while the Caribbean fell behind. The study underscores that agricultural modernization in LAC has often been capital-intensive and export-driven, marginalizing smallholders and degrading ecosystems. The results call for a policy shift toward integrated, context-sensitive strategies that balance productivity with environmental stewardship. Technological innovations—such as precision fertilization and biological alternatives—combined with policy incentives like payments for ecosystem services and environmental taxes, institutional reforms to strengthen interministerial coordination, and public investment in dual-purpose R+D+i systems, are essential to support sustainable and resilient agricultural systems across the region.

Uncovering evidence gaps in agricultural productivity research: A systemic mapping

This chapter presents findings from a systematic mapping of agricultural productivity interventions across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to uncover critical evidence gaps that obstruct effective policy design. This initiative draws on methods applied in LAC through Avanzar2030: Innovating for Sustainable Agrifood Systems, led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA), and the Juno Evidence Alliance with support from other international organizations. The ongoing Avanzar2030 initiative aims to identify evidence-backed policies for sustainable food systems transformation in LAC using evidence synthesis methods.

By identifying key knowledge gaps, the analysis provides a foundation for shaping future research and guiding policy decisions to better support sustainable productivity growth in the region. The initial search identified 8,193 potentially relevant studies from academic databases based on title and abstract information. From these, a representative sample of 805 studies was examined at full text by a team of trained experts, as well as a representative sample of studies from grey literature, resulting in 82 studies that met all inclusion criteria. This random sample of 82 studies served as the primary evidence base that was assessed to identify knowledge gaps.

This systematic mapping exercise revealed the following insights: (i) the literature shows pronounced geographic disparities, with countries in Central America and the Caribbean notably underrepresented; (ii) the evidence is concentrated on cash crops and export-oriented products, while staple crops and diversified farming systems are relatively unexplored; (iii) evidence gaps persist around both emerging intervention types and longstanding mechanisms that have been widely implemented in LAC for decades; (iv) methodologically, rigorous impact evaluations that apply counterfactual analysis are scarce; (v) the absence of heterogeneity analyses and studies examining the differential impacts of interventions on diverse groups (women farmers, Indigenous producers, and afro-descendant farmers) was one of the most pronounced gaps in the literature base; and (vi) although growing attention has been given to climate-related dimensions of agricultural interventions, a more systematic and in-depth approach is needed to assess long-term sustainability and resilience outcomes.

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns by fine stratum of gestational age and birthweight for 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2017

To describe the mortality risks by fine strata of gestational age and birthweight among 230 679 live births in nine low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017.Descriptive multi‐country secondary data analysis.Nine LMICs in sub‐Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America.Liveborn infants from 15 population‐based cohorts.Subnational, population‐based studies with high‐quality birth outcome data were invited to join the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. All studies included birthweight, gestational age measured by ultrasound or last menstrual period, infant sex and neonatal survival. We defined adequate birthweight as 2500–3999 g (reference category), macrosomia as ≥4000 g, moderate low as 1500–2499 g and very low birthweight as <1500 g. We analysed fine strata classifications of preterm, term and post‐term: ≥42+0, 39+0–41+6 (reference category), 37+0–38+6, 34+0–36+6,34+0–36+6,32+0–33+6, 30+0–31+6, 28+0–29+6 and less than 28 weeks.Median and interquartile ranges by study for neonatal mortality rates (NMR) and relative risks (RR). We also performed meta‐analysis for the relative mortality risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by the fine categories, stratified by regional study setting (sub‐Saharan Africa and Southern Asia) and study‐level NMR (≤25 versus >25 neonatal deaths per 1000 live births).We found a dose–response relationship between lower gestational ages and birthweights with increasing neonatal mortality risks. The highest NMR and RR were among preterm babies born at <28 weeks (median NMR 359.2 per 1000 live births; RR 18.0, 95% CI 8.6–37.6) and very low birthweight (462.8 per 1000 live births; RR 43.4, 95% CI 29.5–63.9). We found no statistically significant neonatal mortality risk for macrosomia (RR 1.1, 95% CI 0.6–3.0) but a statistically significant risk for all preterm babies, post‐term babies (RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.5) and babies born at 370–386 weeks (RR 1.2, 95% CI 1.0–1.4). There were no statistically significant differences by region or underlying neonatal mortality.In addition to tracking vulnerable newborn types, monitoring finer categories of birthweight and gestational age will allow for better understanding of the predictors, interventions and health outcomes for vulnerable newborns. It is imperative that all newborns from live births and stillbirths have an accurate recorded weight and gestational age to track maternal and neonatal health and optimise prevention and care of vulnerable newborns.

2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Honduras

The 2019 Honduras Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Replication Data for "COVID-19 and Rural Livelihoods: Lessons from a Longer-Term Assessment in Guatemala"

The dataset comprises a panel of 1,262 agricultural households from 86 communities across the departments of Huehuetenango, Quiché, and San Marcos in Guatemala. These households were first surveyed in person in November December 2019 (baseline) and subsequently by phone in follow-up rounds conducted in May June 2020, 2021, and 2022 to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on rural livelihoods and food security. The baseline survey collected detailed information on household socioeconomic characteristics, food security, dietary diversity, migration attitudes, and other economic and financial indicators. The follow-up rounds tracked changes in selected economic, nutritional, and food security outcomes over the three years following the COVID-19 outbreak, while also capturing the effects of additional shocks such as extreme weather events. An additional round was conducted in November December 2022 with a subsample of 777 households, replicating the baseline survey to allow for direct comparisons.

Replication Data for "Price and Volatility Transmission from International to Domestic Food and Fertilizer Markets in Central America"

This dataset contains replication data files for the paper "Price and Volatility Transmission from International to Domestic Food and Fertilizer Markets in Central America." The study analyzes how international prices affect domestic price levels and volatility for key food commodities and agricultural inputs in selected Central American countries.

The dataset includes time series data on domestic and international prices for 26 staple foods, cash crops, and agricultural inputs across seven Central American countries: Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, and Nicaragua. It covers:
Staple foods essential to local diets: rice, beans, maize (corn), and wheat;
Major export crops: bananas and coffee;
Commonly used fertilizers: diammonium phosphate (DAP), urea, and ammonium nitrate.

Domestic prices were compiled from sources such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and national market information systems. International prices were obtained from the FAO Statistical Database (FAOSTAT), Bloomberg, the International Coffee Organization, and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). All prices are reported in United States dollars (USD) and include monthly returns, enabling analysis of both price levels and price volatility.

The replication files include raw and processed price data; Stata or Matlab scripts used in the analysis. These materials are intended to allow full replication of the results reported in the paper and support further research on food price transmission and volatility in developing regions.

Protocol for management of weedy rice (Red Rice) in biofortified rice production systems

Rice (Oryza sativa) is a basic staple food, which is widely consumed around the world, it is a source of food for at least half of the world’s population (Makmuang et al., 2021). Rice is a crucial source of energy, as it contributes almost 20% of the daily caloric intake of an individual. It is a widely consumed food and is cultivated in numerous countries across different continents. According to FAO Stat, the total rice production for 2022 was led by the Asian continent with 698.767.821 tons, followed by Africa with 39.876.974 tons, and the Americas produced 34.052.692 tons.

2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Honduras: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2019 Honduras Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

What do we know about the future of food systems in Latin America and the Caribbean?

Heterogeneity and inequality: Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) agrifood systems are marked by significant disparities across the region and within countries in production, trade, and access to food, with inequality a central challenge. These disparities not only undermine food security but also hinder the region’s ability to develop sustainable and resilient food systems.

Sustainability and climate resilience: The future of LAC’s agrifood systems will be shaped by the region’s ability to balance agricultural growth with environmental sustainability and the conservation of the stock of natural resources in the long run.

Role of policies: Closing the gap between the rich and poor, between large and small producers, and between urban and rural populations requires targeted action, including investing in rural infrastructure, facilitating access to appropriate technologies, and encouraging regional cooperation.

Specialization and governance: The region’s continued specialization in agricultural exports presents both opportunities and challenges. Strengthening food security governance frameworks and promoting inclusive policies will be essential to ensure that the benefits of agricultural growth are shared more equitably and that agrifood systems are resilient in the face of climate change and other global challenges.

Foresight research can help address these challenges, focusing on the consequences of structural transformation, the trade-offs between agricultural productivity and sustainable management of LAC, the long-term effects of climate change, and how disruptors and drivers of agrifood systems transformation can affect the different LAC regions and countries.

What do we know about the future of agriculture in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay?

Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (ABPU) have significant weight in the global agricultural market. In 2020–2022, the bloc accounted for 53.1 percent of Latin America and the Caribbean’s total agricultural exports, and 9.3 percent of the world total. This contribution is key in many products at the global level too, such as soybean products (for which the group accounts for 56 percent of world trade), corn (32 percent), bovine meat (26 percent), poultry meat (20 percent), pork meat (6 percent), and wheat (6 percent) (2020–2022 Comtrade data).

These commodities are essential for global food security, particularly in regions with growing populations and increasing food demand, notably Asia and Africa. Ensuring the sustainability of ABPU production is paramount not only for food security but also for environmental concerns.

ABPU projections show robust growth in cereal and oilseed production, which is expected to increase by 26 percent (118 million tons) by 2033/34 relative to 2023/24. Total exports of cereals and oilseeds are projected to rise by 74 million tons, reaching 355 million tons, driven largely by corn, soybeans, and wheat.

Despite slowing growth in global demand and trade of food products, opportunities exist for ABPU countries to increase their food production and exports. Making the most of these opportunities will require increasing yields to maintain production growth while ensuring sustainability. To this end, technological advancements such as minimal soil disturbance, permanent cover cropping, crop diversification, intensive fattening, biotechnology, biological inputs, and precision agriculture can help increase productivity while minimizing environmental impact.

The investments required to increase the use of enhanced technology could benefit greatly from a more stable political and macroeconomic context, as well as clear and consistent policies. For example, multilateral trade negotiations in agriculture should not be undermined.

Collaboration among ABPU countries could greatly enhance the strategies needed to achieve these sustainability and food security objectives. The analysis described here is intended to kickstart this collaboration, which has shown significant potential for future work.

Special issue: The political economy of agroecological transitions

The transition from conventional, input-intensive agriculture to agroecology is a complex process that is multidimensional and multiscale. An agroecological transition entails economic, social and ecological change that shapes and is shaped by the broader economic and political system. Power relations are a key mediating factor underpinning the prospects and possibilities for agroecological transitions. The possibilities for increasing and/or expanding agroecological transitions, therefore, also entail analyses into policy and institutional reforms at different scales. This collection brings together articles that contribute to a political economy of agroecological transitions. The contributions offer novel ways of considering how power underpins food system transformation; understanding vested interests in the agro-industrial food system and the sectors reinforcing them; and why and how alternatives based on agroecology are proposed, perceived and implemented within diverse food systems contexts. Existing analytical frameworks on agroecology have tended to focus either on evaluating the performance of existing experiences, often drawing on local case studies, or general analysis of factors that either promote or inhibit agroecological transitions. Less attention is being paid to how existing or potential agroecological transitions are situated in a broader context where agro-industrial systems dominate. The collection spans a broad set of methodologies, ranging from survey collection, ethnographic research, discourse analysis, comparative case studies, and natural language processing. Moreover, the empirical foundations of the papers draw on cases in Latin America, Africa, and South Asia, thereby ensuring broad representation of diverse agroecological conditions, constituencies, policy settings, and political systems.

Women’s economic empowerment and leadership: Examining an intervention for smallholder farmers delivered via farmer producer organizations in Guatemala using qualitative methods

Women work across multiple nodes in agricultural value chains, though their participation in value chains varies within and across contexts and their contributions are often underrecognized (Malapit et al., 2020; Quisumbing et al., 2021). Addressing issues such as weak economic growth, climate change, and hunger will require strengthening agricultural value chains, though doing so without a gender-sensitive lens may exacerbate existing gender inequalities within them (Rubin & Manfre, 2014). Development practitioners seeking to strengthen agricultural value chains are increasingly interested in programs that use group-based approaches, as they may reach many people efficiently using such a strategy. However, there is not much evidence on how to increase women’s economic opportunities in agricultural value chains and bolster women’s leadership within the context of group-based interventions.

TechnoServe, with funding support from the Walmart Foundation, began implementing the Smallholder Market Access (SMA) program in Guatemala and Nicaragua in 2019. The goal of this program was to work with farmer producer organizations (FPOs) and affiliated smallholder farmers in fresh produce agricultural value chains (AVCs) to increase the productivity, profits, and the market share of FPOs among smallholder farmers. The program also sought to strengthen women’s inclusion in AVCs, leadership, and empowerment by offering both gender-responsive and gender-transformative program components, particularly though agronomy trainings and gender equality trainings for women and men, as well as women’s leadership trainings for women only.

This qualitative study focuses on SMA in Guatemala. We investigated gender dynamics in FPOs, women’s empowerment, women’s leadership, and how SMA may influence these themes. Ultimately, the goal of this study was to gain insights on the strengths of SMA programming with regard to women smallholder farmers’ economic and leadership opportunities, as well as to identify opportunities to strengthen the program. We collected data from in-depth interviews with eight SMA staff, nine FPO lead ers, and 18 FPO members. We also conducted six single-sex focus group discussions with FPO members, which included 15 women and 13 men total. The FPOs sampled did not receive the full SMA treatment prior to data collection; as such, the results presented in this study reflect perceptions of different components of SMA that had been only partially implemented prior to data collection.

Nature+ Quantitative Monitoring Household Survey, Colombia

The NATURE+ survey conducted in Colombia integrated household and community-level questionnaires to develop a comprehensive understanding of the socio-economic, agricultural, and environmental dynamics influencing potential beneficiaries of NATURE+ interventions. The study focused on two key departments: Nariño and Putumayo. At the household level, the survey collected detailed socio-economic and demographic data, including household composition, education levels, land ownership, income sources, self-employment activities, and asset ownership. This information provides crucial insights into the economic conditions of the surveyed population. The survey also documented agricultural practices on farms and in chagras—traditional agroforestry systems maintained by Indigenous communities. Specific attention was given to crop and livestock production, crop biodiversity, and the use of fertilizers and pesticides. The survey further investigated the adoption of nature-positive solutions, including agroforestry practices, environmental management (such as waste handling and renewable energy use), and awareness of biodiversity benefits. Issues related to food security and dietary diversity were also addressed. At the community level, the questionnaire aimed to capture broader socio-economic, environmental, and institutional factors across selected communities in Cumbal (Nariño) and multiple municipalities in Putumayo. It gathered demographic estimates—such as population size, gender and age composition, and number of households—to construct a socio-economic profile of each community. The survey assessed the prevalence and benefits of nature-positive practices, such as biodiversity conservation, agroforestry, and sustainable land management. It also evaluated the role of external actors, including NGOs and extension agencies, in promoting these practices. Additional components covered community infrastructure, natural resource governance, and ongoing sustainability initiatives.

SOP for the determination and quantification of phenolic compounds in bean flour by HPLC

This SOP describes the stages of the extraction process, drying, identification, and quantification of the main phenolic compounds in common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)

Regional developments: Latin America and the Caribbean [in 2025 GFPR]

Over the past five decades, Latin America and the Caribbean has experienced significant changes in its food systems, while also facing both long-standing and new challenges. The region plays a key role in global food security and nutrition, as well as in stabilizing the global climate and conserving biodiversity. Moving forward, the region must overcome the hurdles created by economic and political instability, climate change, and deep-rooted structural inequalities. This chapter draws on research by IFPRI and partners to outline the evolving food systems landscape and present policy options and research priorities for the years ahead.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Applying the Women’s Empowerment Metric in National Statistical Systems (WEMNS) to build gender equity

Governments’ adoption of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action in 1995 —which advanced a set of common principles on gender equality—elevated women’s empowerment in policy as an end in itself, not just as a means to achieving other development outcomes. While great strides have been made in developing tools to track progress toward gender equality since then, nationally representative and multi-topic surveys still often lack concise yet comprehensive measures of empowerment. The Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS) was developed by IFPRI and partners as a solution to this data gap.

Rocking the boat to change the debate: Identifying and testing conventional wisdom

This paper presents a method for and experiences with pioneering new research directions that challenge “conventional wisdom” and change policy and research debates. The method consists of four steps: (1) identify the conventional wisdom (CW); (2) ignore the CW and go to the field without pre-conceived notions, and look long and hard at reality—with interviews and surveys broad enough to allow oneself to make discoveries that contradict the CW; (3) then identify the contradictions between the CW and the field discoveries and pinpoint the implications for policy and research debates; (4) develop and mainstream a new research theme along a research “product cycle.” The paper summarizes my and collaborators’ application of the method with illustrations from four waves of market economics field research in Africa, Asia, and Latin America since the 1980s: (a) rural nonfarm employment; (b) processed food consumption; (c) the “hidden middle” (rapid diffusion of small and medium enterprises in the midstream of value chains); and (d) the “supermarket revolution”. The paper ends with a discussion of the benefits of this approach to policy and research debates and the researcher's own career, as well as considerations of risks, timing, and approach for application of the method.

JEL Classification: D12, J20, O12, O18, Q12, Q18

Parametric and machine learning approaches to examine yield differences between control and treatment considering outliers and statistical biases: The case of insect resistant/herbicide tolerant (IR/HT) maize in Honduras

Robust impact assessment methods need credible yield, costs, and other production performance parameter estimates. Sample data issues and the realities of producer heterogeneity and markets, including endogeneity, simultaneity, and outliers can affect such parameters. Methods have continued to evolve that may address data issues identified in the earlier literature examining genetically modified (GM) crops impacts especially those of conventional field level surveys. These methods may themselves have limitations, introduce trade-offs, and may not always be successful in addressing such issues. Experimental methods such as randomized control trials have been proposed to address several control treatment data issues, but these may not be suitable for every situation and issue and may be more expensive and complex than conventional field surveys. Furthermore, experimental methods may induce the unfortunate outcome of crowding-out impact assessors from low- and middle-income countries. The continued search for alternatives that help address conventional survey shortcomings remains critical. Previously, existing assessment methods were applied to the impact assessment of insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize adoption in Honduras in 2008 and 2012. Results from assessments identified endogeneity issues such as self-selection and simultaneity concurrently with influential outliers. Procedures used to address these issues independently showed trade-offs between addressing endogeneity and outliers. Thus, the need to identify methods that address both issues simultaneously, minimizing as much as possible the impact of method trade-offs, continues. We structured this paper as follows. First, we review the literature to delineate data and assessment issues potentially affecting robust performance indicators such as yields and costs differentials. Second, we discuss and apply four types of approaches that can be used to obtain robust performance estimates for yield and cost differentials including: 1) Robust Instrumental Variables, 2) Instrumental Variable Regressions, and 3) Control/Treatment, and 4) Machine Learning methods that are amenable to robust strategies to deal with outliers including Random Forest and a Stacking regression approach that allows for a number of “base learners” in order to examine the pooled 2008 and 2012 Honduras field surveys. Third, we discuss implications for impact assessment results and implementation limitations especially in low- and middle-income countries. We further discuss and draw some conclusions regarding methodological issues for consideration by impact assessors and stakeholders.

How ‘reciprocal tariffs’ harm agricultural trade

Citing the persistent U.S. trade deficit and what he considers unfair practices by other countries, President Donald Trump declared April 2 “Liberation Day” and announced a sweeping new set of supplemental tariffs on imports from nearly all major U.S. trading partners. This announcement follows a series of previous actions taken since the beginning of the administration, including 20% tariffs on Chinese imports, 25% tariffs on automobiles and auto parts, and duties on steel and aluminum.

While the broader political and economic implications of these measures have dominated initial headlines, their impact on global agricultural trade could be equally disruptive. Agriculture sits at the intersection of global value chains, international development, and national food security. It is also a sector that has historically been highly sensitive to trade policies, retaliatory tariffs, and sudden shifts in market access. As with the wave of tariffs introduced during the first Trump administration, this new regime could reshape trade flows, drive price volatility, and introduce long-term uncertainty into the global food system.

Principles of engagement and vision to action for transdisciplinary research and co-design in agroecology

Living labs or living landscapes are gaining momentum as sub-national territories within which sustainable food system transformation is sought through multi-stakeholder engagement processes.

In the CGIAR Agroecology Initiative, 11 ALLs were established in 8 countries. Here, ALLs are defined as multi-stakeholder spaces in which agroecological innovations can be identified, co-designed, tested, and adopted.

These landscapes emerge as coherent territories that have fuzzy boundaries defined by the functionality and meaning bestowed onto them by their diverse users, who care about and are willing to take transformative action in pursuit of just food system transitions, rather than by geographical or administrative limits.

ALLs respond to the common challenges that external partners face in accompanying and supporting local stakeholders on agroecological transition pathways without imposing their own views and agendas. ALLs offer an opportunity to act as transformation vehicles that foster transdisciplinary research, including the co-creation of knowledge and co-design of innovations. Principle-based engagement methods can help to support and enable locally driven transformation processes.

Peru’s rapid rise as the world’s leading blueberry exporter

Over the past 10 years, Peru has grown to become the second-largest producer of blueberries in the world after the United States and the world’s largest exporter. How did a country that produced almost no blueberries as late as 2010 manage this feat?

What are kids watching online? How digital food marketing shapes children’s and adolescents’ diets

High global phosphate prices pose potential food security risks

Fertilizer prices experienced a significant surge in 2021, driven by the post-COVID 19 global economic recovery. Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine propelled prices even higher. Broad economic sanctions on key fertilizer exporters Russia and Belarus exempted agricultural products but triggered further economic disruptions. Overall, the conflict heightened market uncertainties regarding the availability of potash, phosphate, and nitrogen-based fertilizers in international trade.

Impact of proposed U.S. tariffs on agricultural trade flows in the Western Hemisphere

In a previous post, we examined how the tariffs could potentially impact countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) based on current agricultural trade patterns between the United States and its neighbors in the hemisphere. Here, we extend that analysis, examining how tariffs on imports to the U.S. from Canada and Mexico could affect intra-regional trade between the three countries and across Central and South America and the Caribbean.

Focusing on agrifood trade, this post summarizes recent model-based analysis to be published in more detail in a forthcoming report. It considers two scenarios. The first is based on the U.S. 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico (energy resources from Canada have a lower 10% tariff), that took effect March 4. The second scenario considers the impacts if Mexico and Canada retaliate against those measures with across-the-board increases in tariffs on U.S. imports.

How countries have coped with recent agricultural trade disruptions

Global agricultural markets have been in a constant state of uproar over the past five years. Trade wars between major trading nations such as China, the United States, and Australia, supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, crisis in the Middle East, and export restrictions in many countries have diverted supplies, altered trading patterns, and increased price volatility, which often makes markets less efficient and more costly.

Digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages to children and adolescents: A narrative review

With growing access to electronic devices and time spent online, the food and beverage industry increasingly uses digital media to market unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages (high in unhealthy fats, sugars, and/or salt and often highly processed) to children and adolescents. We conducted a narrative review of the global evidence on digital marketing of these foods and drinks and studied policies and regulations in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Evidence was limited to a few high, upper-middle and lower-middle income countries where children and adolescents were found to be extensively exposed to the digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages and this exposure increased with age. A wide range of purposefully designed marketing techniques were used. Exposure to the digital marketing of unhealthy foods appears to be followed by increased consumption, but the quality of the evidence was limited. Accurate assessment of exposure was a shortcoming in most studies. Stronger evidence will require studies with more rigorous designs that minimize confounding and objectively quantify individual exposure. Mandatory comprehensive policies are needed that limit exposure of children and adolescents to the marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages irrespective of the medium or platform they use. The experience of LAC countries may provide insights for the development of effective policies in other countries. Novel technologies that can be used by governments to monitor digital marketing regulations are needed.

Levelling the field: A review of the ICT revolution and agricultural extension in the Global South

Information and communications technology has evolved significantly over the last seven decades, beginning with radio and video vans and culminating in the rise of smartphones and mobile internet in remote areas of the Global South. While ICT is an integral part of agricultural extension, little is known about how these changes have influenced agricultural extension practices. After a systematic review of 131 papers, we find that changes in ICT have shaped agricultural extension, enabling a shift from linear dissemination and “one-way communication” to co-innovation and farmer-to-farmer learning. The results indicate the potential for smartphones and mobile internet to democratize agricultural extension.

Note Pratique: Concevoir des approches transformatives sensibles au genre dans le contexte des droits des femmes aux terres et aux ressources

L’accès aux terres et aux ressources, et leur contrôle, sont essentiels à l’autonomisation des femmes, car il s’agit non seulement de moyens de production fondamentaux, mais aussi de déterminants du statut social et du pouvoir politique. Cependant, les femmes des zones rurales sont confrontées à de nombreux obstacles à la garantie de leurs droits fonciers, notamment un accès limité aux ressources et aux services tels que les financements, les soins de santé, l’éducation, les informations sur les marchés, les intrants agricoles et la technologie. Ces obstacles sont souvent aggravés par des problèmes systémiques plus aigus en période de conflits ou de crises économiques, alimentaires ou environnementales.

Garantir les droits des femmes aux terres et aux ressources est fondamental pour atteindre les objectifs de développement durable (ODD). En effet, d’après le Haut-Commissariat des Nations Unies aux Droits de l’Homme, le renforcement des droits fonciers des femmes permet une amélioration de leur statut, conditions de vie, sécurité alimentaire, santé, éducation, et les protègent contre la violence basée sur le genre (VBG). Ces droits sont essentiels pour la démocratie, la paix, le développement durable et la sécurité.

Pour relever ces défis, des mesures proactives sont nécessaires pour transformer les inégalités femmes-hommes profondément ancrées dans les politiques officielles et les normes sociales informelles. La promotion de l’équité dans l’accès, le contrôle et l’utilisation des terres et des ressources ne peut se faire qu’en composant avec ces institutions formelles et informelles et en les transformant, y compris les régimes coutumiers, afin de promouvoir l’équité sociale et de genre.

How to do note: Designing GTAs in the context of women’s land and resource rights

Access to and control over land and resources are vital for women’s empowerment, serving not only as critical productive assets but also as determinants of social status and political power. However, rural women face numerous barriers in securing land rights, including restricted access to resources and services like finance, healthcare, education, market information, agricultural inputs, and technology. Gender transformative approaches (GTAs) aim to challenge and change the underlying social norms, power dynamics, and systemic barriers perpetuating inequality. This How To Do Note (HTDN) describes a process for developing GTAs that can help redress inequalities in women’s land and resource rights. It draws on lessons from an initiative in which GTAs were designed, tested, and adapted across six IFAD projects in countries where addressing gender dimensions was critical for project success. The HTDN aims to facilitate wider adoption and scaling of GTAs to strengthen women’s land and resource rights.

Guia Orientadora: Diseño de enfoques transformadores en materia de género en el contexto de los derechos de las mujeres a la tierra y los recursos

El acceso y el control a la tierra y los recursos son elementos fundamentales para el empoderamiento de las mujeres, ya que no solo constituyen bienes productivos esenciales, sino que también determinan su estatus social y su poder político. Sin embargo, las mujeres rurales se enfrentan a numerosos obstáculos para garantizar sus derechos a la tierra, entre ellos el acceso limitado a recursos y servicios como el financiamiento, la atención en salud, la educación, la información sobre los mercados, los insumos agrícolas y la tecnología. Con frecuencia, estas dificultades son agravadas por problemas sistémicos más amplios, por épocas de conflicto y por crisis económicas, alimentarias y ambientales. Garantizar los derechos de las mujeres a la tierra y los recursos es esencial para alcanzar los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS). Según la Oficina del Alto Comisionado de las Naciones Unidas para los Derechos Humanos, fortalecer los derechos de las mujeres a la tierra contribuye a mejorar su participación social, sus condiciones de vida, su seguridad alimentaria, su salud, su educación y su defensa frente a la violencia por razones de género. Estos derechos son cruciales para la democracia, la paz, el desarrollo sostenible y la seguridad de las sociedades.
Hacer frente a estos desafíos exige medidas proactivas que permitan transformar las desigualdades de género que se encuentran arraigadas tanto en las políticas formales como en las normas sociales informales. La promoción del acceso, control y uso equitativo de la tierra y los recursos solo puede lograrse abordando y transformando estas instituciones formales e informales, incluidos los regímenes consuetudinarios, para promover la igualdad social y de género.

Migration and empowerment: Data from a follow-up survey among a sample of households in western Honduras

This data paper documents migration and empowerment indicators from a two-round survey conducted in Western Honduras as part of a study validating the Migration Propensity Index (MPI). The baseline survey (May–June 2023) reached 1,209 households across six departments, using a multi-stage cluster sampling strategy prioritizing municipalities with high migration prevalence. Data included MPI questions and potential migration factors. A follow-up survey (May–June 2024) re-interviewed 1,094 households, with additional tracking efforts yielding data on migration for 1,176 households (97% of the baseline). Migration was categorized as internal (to a different department) or external (outside Honduras). The follow-up survey also collected empowerment data using the Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS) from one household respondent, focusing on intrinsic, instrumental, and collective agency, as well as agency-enabling resources, aggregated into a single empowerment index.

The wonder and importance of biological control in farming and agrifood systems

Simplemente agotado … how tired!! Sunburned, running low on water and my trousers caked with mud—that’s how my first day of field research in the Yeguare River valley, Honduras, ended back in 2002. From that day on, for two years, I imagined myself aboard Darwin’s Beagle or the Victoria, the carrack on which Magellan had circumnavigated the globe. On my daily journey of ecological discovery and exploration, I was alone yet more connected than ever. Magnifying glass in hand and aspirator bottle at the ready, my days were spent scanning maize plants’ foliage for the six-legged creatures that devoured farmers’ crop pests. Those bugs kept me going: I was hooked on the mystery, surprise, and beauty of a seemingly simple, yet utterly complex farmland ecosystem. To cite the late E.O. Wilson, I could have spent “a lifetime in a Magellanic voyage” around those maize stalks! Filled with a sense of wonder, every day brought a revelation, a new interaction logged, and a piece of the food system sustainability puzzle uncovered. Most of my days ended tired … yet truly inspired.

Migration Propensity Index Validation Survey, Honduras

This dataset documents migration and empowerment indicators from a two-round survey conducted in Western Honduras as part of a study validating the Migration Propensity Index (MPI). The baseline survey (May–June 2023) reached 1,209 households across six departments, using a multi-stage cluster sampling strategy prioritizing municipalities with high migration prevalence. Data included MPI questions and potential migration factors. A follow-up survey (May–June 2024) re-interviewed 1,094 households, with additional tracking efforts yielding data on migration for 1,176 households (97% of the baseline). Migration was categorized as internal (to a different department) or external (outside Honduras). The follow-up survey also collected empowerment data on a theoretically-informed subset of indicators from the Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS) from one household respondent, focusing on intrinsic, instrumental, and collective agency, as well as agency-enabling resources, aggregated into a single empowerment index.

Borlaug Dialogue side event: Reducing food loss and waste to address climate change in Africa, Latin America, and South Asia

The problem of food loss and waste (FLW) undermines global food and nutrition security and makes a significant contribution to climate change, primarily through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing or minimizing FLW requires coordinated action to align stakeholders, promote responsible investments, and incentivize sustainable agricultural practices.

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Colombia

The 2022 Colombia Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Achieving women’s empowerment beyond income and asset increases: What do we still need to know?

Programming to address gender disparities in agricultural production has grown significantly over the past quarter century since Kabeer (1999) defined women’s empowerment and called for greater support for women to gain agency over their lives. Important questions remain about the “how” of supporting women to engage with market systems and to use their earnings and skills to empower themselves by strengthening their abilities to make strategic decisions and act on them.

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Colombia: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2022 Colombia Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

2021 Social Accounting Matrix for Guatemala: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2021 Guatemala Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Bioeconomy pathways: Experience from Africa, Asia, and Latin America

In 2022, the Malabo Montpellier Panel published a report that made the case for African countries to embrace a bioeconomy approach to meet their agrifood systems transformation and economic growth ambitions. The Panel systematically identified four African countries at the forefront of transitioning to a bioeconomy to better understand how different governments choose their own context-specific bioeconomy development pathways (Malabo Montpellier Panel 2022). Building on this analysis, this chapter provides a snapshot of how different countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are choosing their own context-specific bioeconomy entry points and pathways. It provides an update of the analyses by the Panel on the cases of Ghana, Namibia, and Uganda. In addition, this chapter shows how Brazil and Thailand have embraced a bioeconomy transition to support learning not just across borders, but across regions.

Identifying guidelines for the design of conditional credit programs to promote sustainable agricultural practices in Latin America

The complex challenge of increasing food production while mitigating carbon dioxide emissions, building resilience to climate change, and reducing the burden of agriculture on natural resources requires innovative approaches. Promising strategies include increasing access to mechanization and adopting modern fertilization processes that contribute to climate change adaptation efforts, or the use of improved seeds . To pursue such changes farmers and others along value chains need greater access to financial resources, especially in low- and middle-income countries with high concentrations of smallholders.

Síntesis de evidencia: Lineamientos para el diseño de programas crediticios agropecuarios condicionados para el fomento de prácticas agropecuarias sostenibles

El Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI, por sus siglas en inglés) y la Universidad de los Andes, en el marco de Avanzar2030 , están llevando a cabo una síntesis de evidencia para identificar los instrumentos financieros agropecuarios –a nivel internacional– que contribuyan a mejorar la productividad y que presenten resultados favorables a la naturaleza. Con la finalidad de generar directrices al Gobierno de Colombia orientadas al diseño de programas crediticios agropecuarios condicionados que fomenten prácticas sostenibles y que reduzcan los impactos negativos al medio ambiente.

Transforming agricultural support for a sustainable future: A Latin America and Caribbean view

Addressing the complex challenges facing agricultural and food systems requires a detailed and integrated approach that ensures food security, enhances nutrition, protects environmental sustainability, and supports livelihoods. Governments are crucial in guiding this transformation through a range of policy tools, including regulatory measures, market-based mechanisms, price adjustments that reflect true production costs, and the reassessment of agricultural subsidies. Achieving comprehensive solutions to these challenges across the domains of food security, nutrition, and sustainable development hinges on reforming domestic agricultural support.

Navigating the trade landscape: A Latin American perspective building on the WTO 13th ministerial conference

This publication-a joint effort by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA)-is being released in the context of growing changes and fragmentation in global economic and trade relationships. Countries are increasingly adopting protectionist measures in response to recent crises and the decreased competitiveness of value chains, due to rising production, marketing and transportation costs. The complex multilateral trade system and the urgent need to implement concrete actions in this area are prompting countries to work towards the adoption of new standards that aim to protect and preserve the environment but could also become barriers to trade that impose a significant economic and social cost on other countries. The countries of the Americas must continue to support efforts to strengthen the multilateral trade system, ensuring that it is open, transparent and science-based, as well as to effectively participate in discussion forums such as the ministerial conferences of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Amidst this scenario, international trade plays a vital role in transforming food systems, by interconnecting them and contributing to creating a more sustainable global food system. In recent years, the growth of production and exports has converted Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) into the largest net food exporting region in the world. On average, agrifood exports from the region in 2021-2023 accounted for 17% of global agrifood exports, representing one fourth of total exports from the region. During that period, LAC agrifood exports grew by 7.6%. Yet, it bears mentioning that, despite its important role, the region has its share of challenges. During 2023, 85% of LAC agrifood exports were directed at external markets and 53% of the value of exported agrifood exports was concentrated among only 10 products. This demonstrates the region’s significant vulnerability and is undoubtedly a challenge that must be addressed. This document is an inter-institutional effort to share ideas and reflections on the main issues to be tackled building on the 13th WTO Ministerial Conference. We hope that it will serve as input in strengthening the participation of the countries of the Americas in WTO multilateral negotiations, while also highlighting the key role of agricultural trade in agrifood system transformation.

Introduction: Creating context and unveiling crucial issues

The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 12th Ministerial Conference (MC12) was held in June 2022 in Geneva, Switzerland, after a year-long delay due to COVID-19-related travel restrictions and other disruptions. The same year, a new wave of export restrictions and trade disruptions resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier that year, adding to the disruptions brought on by the pandemic. In many ways, these events were the beginning of geopolitical changes that have now led to a profound transformation in the structure of production and trade, including a growing tendency toward protectionism.

MC13 took place in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in February 2024. Little progress was made in general, but especially in relation to agricultural trade. With respect to the latter, the main discussion centered on reducing trade-distorting agricultural subsidies to ensure fair competition, improving market access for developing countries by lowering tariff and nontariff barriers, addressing export restrictions to ensure stable supplies during food crises, and providing flexibility and support to developing countries through special and differential treatment. Additionally, strategies were discussed to enhance global food security amid challenges such as climate change and conflicts, aiming to create a more equitable and sustainable global agricultural trading system. However, positive outcomes from these discussions were few and not very significant.

Agriculture negotiations priorities and sustainable development at the WTO

During a meeting of the WTO Committee on Agriculture in Special Session (CoASS) in June 2023, agricultural negotiators made new submissions on domestic support and export restrictions. Submissions on domestic support were made by the African Group, the Cairns Group -a coalition of developed and developing agricultural exporting economies-, and Costa Rica. The United Kingdom also submitted an analytical paper on export restrictions, making the case for WTO members to pursue more focused discussions on the food security impact of export restrictions on agricultural products, based on data and members’ experiences.

Price volatility, export restrictions and the need for transparency

In this chapter, we explore how the WTO has struggled to fulfill its mission of advancing negotiations post the Uruguay Round. As export restrictions were not prioritized during the creation of GATT and the establishment of the WTO, this led to the utilization of export restrictions by countries, particularly in an unstable context, further exacerbating volatility in agricultural commodities. Moreover, as a result of an insufficient WTO notification system, countries have failed to promptly notify all measures. Furthermore, due to the paralysis of the Dispute Settlement Body, the WTO has lost its enforcement capacity, reducing the incentive for countries to engage in discussions within that forum, even when it is necessary to enhance transparency levels that provide greater certainty to dynamic and stressed markets, which is crucial for driving global food security and ensuring efficient allocation.

Shaping multilateral trade: The changing institutional landscape

This chapter highlights the fact that many international trade stakeholders agree on the urgent need to strengthen the multilateral trade system and its governing body, the World Trade Organization (WTO). This will mean that the WTO will need to strengthen its intrinsic negotiating function, in particular its ability to achieve results in different processes in the trade agenda, and particularly in the negotiations on agriculture. Indeed, it has failed to completely fulfill its mandate to deepen the reform process, through the adoption of key disciplines in the major negotiation pillars, among them, domestic support, export restrictions and the search for innovative options to fulfill the Bali mandate on the establishment of public entities to promote food security. Moreover, negotiations on other issues that are relevant to a significant group of countries, such as market access, are moving at their own pace.

Undoubtedly, tackling major challenges such as food security and climate change will require innovation and the adoption of new technologies and science, in order to increase production and the productivity of agrifood systems. Production volume, quality and sustainability must be improved, without losing sight of the fact that producers are social and economic players in the countries whose economic activity must be profitable. It must also be mentioned that trade and national production play an important role in achieving global food security.

Geopolitical changes and their implications for agricultural trade negotiations

The dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) in the 1990s marked a significant geopolitical shift, resulting in the clear and undisputed preeminence of the United States (USA) in global affairs. This new dominance was bolstered by the support of its closest allies, primarily the European Union (EU), Japan, Australia, and a few others.

In the wake of this geopolitical shift, a new phase of global economic interdependence emerged characterized by a growing reliance on trade and the development of global value chains, which connected production processes across multiple countries. This collaborative approach to production rapidly accelerated at the beginning of the 21st century and played a crucial role in the rapid economic development of countries like China and the Republic of Korea.

Public stockholding programs and the WTO

The issue of how support for public stockholding (PSH) programs is calculated and disciplined within the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) has been a point of contention since 2012. PSH was largely uncontroversial during the Doha negotiations, where issues like the Special Safeguard Mechanism, domestic support, and cotton contributed to the collapse of negotiations in 2008 (Blustein 2009; Jones 2010; Margulis 2023). However, members who raised administered prices to keep up with surging market prices in the late 2000s found themselves facing potential challenges, as support levels for PSH programs threatened to exceed domestic support commitments under the AoA.

At the Ministerial Conference in Bali in 2013 (MC 9), members agreed to an interim mechanism, which granted a “peace clause” to countries with existing PSH programs, effectively shielding them from challenges regarding compliance with domestic support obligations under the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism. Under the Bali Decision, members agreed to provide data on how the program operated and to ensure that such programs were not trade distorting or would not affect the food security of other WTO members. PSH remains controversial and members failed to reach agreement on a permanent solution at subsequent Ministerials in Nairobi, Buenos Aires and Geneva. More than 10 years later, failure to reach an agreement on PSH continues to block significant progress in overall negotiations.

Global Food Policy Report 2024 Latin America and the Caribbean launch: Promoting sustainable healthy diets to address diverse nutrition challenges

Malnutrition stemming from unhealthy diets is a major food systems challenge impacting the health and well-being of people around the world. High food prices, increasing availability of ultra-processed foods, urbanization, climate change, and other trends have contributed to the overconsumption of unhealthy foods while limiting the accessibility of healthy foods. These challenges are prevalent across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) where healthy foods are often expensive, high levels of economic and social inequality persist, and dietary changes have led to a rapid increase in overweight and obesity existing alongside other forms of malnutrition.

Introduction and executive summary for the supplement micronutrients in Latin America: Current state and research

Global health and nutrition stakeholders are facing a period full of changes and challenges, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Almost every country is experiencing at least, one burden of malnutrition,1 and among them many are facing the triple burden of malnutrition, both associated with unhealthy and nondiverse diets and reduced physical activity. According to the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World Report, in 2022, between 691 and 783 million people faced chronic hunger, representing an increase of 122 million people compared to 2019. It also informed that 3.1 billion people could not afford a healthy diet.2 On the one hand, economic shocks, war, violence, and climate-related disruptions are the leading causes of the current steep increase in the global burden of hunger in all its forms. The COVID-19 pandemic and other repeated pandemic shocks further reduce food and nutrition security of poor countries.3 On the other hand, chronic noncommunicable diseases, most of which are associated with overweight-obesity and unhealthy behavioral and environmental risk factors, continue to rise as the principal causes of death and disability worldwide, also disproportionately impacting LMIC.4 While the prevalence of hunger in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is lower than the global average, food insecurity affects a higher proportion of the population in the region (40%) relative to the global prevalence (29.3%). The region also experiences the highest cost of a healthy diet, with 131 million people unable to afford to meet the recommended nutritional requirements that healthy diets would provide.5-7 Consequently, the risks of nutrient deficiency and excess for the region can be inferred, but the scarcity of current nationally representative data on micronutrient deficiencies is neither useful for program planning or evaluation nor conducive to narrowing the equity and justice gaps in the region.

Shaping the future of agrifood systems: Insights from an Avanzar2030 workshop in Costa Rica

Many policies have been implemented across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to make agrifood systems more sustainable and promote food security. Identifying the most effective and innovative among these is crucial to efforts to adapt to climate change, sustainably transform food systems, and other key goals. The project Avanzar2030: Innovation for Sustainable Agrifood Systems seeks to identify such policies, technologies, and institutions that can drive positive change in LAC—and contribute to larger global efforts.

Regional developments [in 2024 Global Food Policy Report]

The regional section of the 2024 Global Food Policy Report examines the evolving problem of malnutrition—including undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and overweight and obesity—in low- and middle-income countries across the world’s major regions. Policy interventions are highlighted that address the particular challenges and opportunities in each region, with recommendations that aim to transform food systems to make healthier, more diverse, and more sustainable diets available, affordable, accessible, and desirable for everyone, including the most vulnerable.

Africa:
Diverse diet and nutrition conditions in Africa call for targeted strategies to increase the supply, affordability, and consumption of healthy foods, especially for the most vulnerable. Addressing the high burden of micronutrient deficiencies and undernutrition in the region will require lever¬aging local, national, regional, and continental food systems to increase the supply and reduce the cost of nutritious foods. This regional section discusses the importance of contextualizing evidence-based multisectoral policy and program approaches, and strengthening people’s resilience and capacity to cope with global threats posed by climate change, conflicts, and other shocks to support a shift to sustainable healthy diets.

Middle East and North Africa:
To achieve sustainable healthy diets in the Middle East and North Africa, multifaceted policy approaches are needed to boost the resilience of food systems to frequent shocks, which raise food prices and affect diet quality. National policy responses need to consider the region’s double burden of malnutrition along with other vulnerabilities, including climate change, water scarcity, and conflict, as well as more effective targeting of social protection for the most vulnerable groups, and reform of food subsidies to improve diets.

Central Asia:
Food systems in Central Asia face serious challenges related to diet quality and nutrition. Obstacles include the high cost of a healthy diet, inadequate nutrition knowledge, unhealthy consumption habits, and domestic and regional policies. This regional section discusses the additional impact of climate change, unstable commodity markets, and a heavy reliance on remittances and undiversified trade flows, and highlights several policy interventions that have potential to transform Central Asian food systems.

South Asia:
In South Asia, where levels of malnutrition are high and rates of diet-related noncommunicable diseases are rising, a shift toward healthier, more sustainable diets will require allocating more resources to promote production and consumption of non-staple foods. This regional section explores “crop-neutral” policies that would allow farmers to respond to market sig¬nals and contribute to diversification in domestic food production that could also reduce poverty. Taxes on foods high in fat, sugar, and salt could help slow the rapid increase in consumption of these foods, and effective front-of-package labeling can promote healthy food choices.

East and Southeast Asia:
Major challenges to achieving sustainable healthy diets in East and Southeast Asia include poor food standards, lack of consideration of diets and health in trade policies, and changing food demand. This regional section highlights multi-duty policy actions that are needed to address the double burden of malnutrition and its drivers, including rapid urbanization, income growth, and environmental changes. Policy reforms must consider the needs and preferences of diverse populations in the region, support the agency of the most marginalized producers and consumers, and strengthen regional cooperation to make diverse, healthy food available and accessible for all.

Latin America and the Caribbean:
To achieve sustainable healthy diets, the Latin America and Caribbean region will require both demand- and supply-side solutions, as well as changes in food environments to increase demand for healthy foods. This regional section discusses the complex challenge of identifying the most effective policies and standards to tackle malnutrition and obstacles to accessing and affording healthy diets. It highlights the importance of clearly defining objectives, strengthening social protection programs, addressing the driv¬ers of obesity and overweight, and increasing the availability and affordability of nutritious foods, while maintaining and expanding the region’s crucial role in global food security and nutrition.

Institutional challenges to the implementation of nationally determined contributions in Latin America and Caribbean countries: Institutional architecture requirements, issues arising from the examination of NDC updates and lessons learned from capacity development interventions

The nations that signed the Paris Agreement periodically submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with climate mitigation and adaptation goals. Complementarily, countries should also formulate and implement National Adaptation Plans (NAP) and periodically update them. This means that every country is required by law to outline a course of action in response to global warming and submit a pledge with specific objectives it is committed to achieving. These pledges are then reviewed and renewed every five years. Every round of pledges is meant to intensify the level of commitment and is negotiable, meaning that other parties can offer concessions or support in return for a more robust pledge. The pledge and review method were introduced first in 1991; however, in 1997, the international community chose to adopt legally binding emission reduction targets in the Kyoto Protocol. The pledge and review methods were reintroduced in the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, following its limited success and the inability to reach an agreement on new targets. The NDC wording took the place of the pledge-and-review expression in the negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement.

The fact that NDCs rely on voluntary commitments from signatory nations—many of whom lack the financial, technological, or institutional means to effectively combat climate change—has drawn criticism. Setting top-down targets, however, results in a distributional problem among nations that has proven unsolvable. Furthermore, targets are by no means a good solution in the absence of efficient review and compliance procedures. Since pledges—both in terms of the degree of commitment and the methods used—are subject to review and are not legally binding, NDCs offer a more practical strategy for international collaboration on mitigating climate change.1 The "naming and shaming" process—a form of peer and reputational pressure—is the foundation of the NDC method. Climate change politics have gradually changed because of the rise of bottom-up society initiatives and transnational networks of non-govern-mental actors, placing increased pressure on national governments and international organizations.

2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Colombia

The Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. The 2019 Colombia SAM follows the Standard Nexus Structure. The open access version of the Colombia SAM separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital. Labor is further disaggregated across three education categories. Representative households are disaggregated by rural and urban areas and by per capita expenditure quintile. The remaining accounts include enterprises, government, taxes, savings-and-investment, and the rest of the world.

Exploring gender roles and women’s empowerment in the coffee value chain and coffee cooperatives: Evidence from Mexico

In southern Mexico, small-scale coffee farmers often join cooperatives to sell their harvests and benefit from potential price stability and services such as training or agricultural advice. Women who join coffee cooperatives are found to have higher levels of decision-making power, but also experience higher levels of time poverty that can limit their ability to expand or improve their coffee production or benefit from cooperative services.

2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Colombia: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2019 Colombia Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

The fallout from COVID-19, land grabs, and deforestation in Argentina’s Gran Chaco Forest region

In the spring of 2023, we taught a graduate level course titled “Agri-food Systems and Economic Development” at Georgetown University’s Global Human Development Program . As one of the assignments, we asked the students to write a policy brief on the impact of a major shock on food systems. This post by Madison is based on that assignment, and is a great example of the systems thinking with which future generations will tackle multiple global crises. We also thank IFPRI’s Valeria Piñeiro for her valuable feedback and suggestions — Devesh Roy , IFPRI Senior Research Fellow, and Ekin Birol , Associate Professor of the Practice, Georgetown University.

Building food security and resilience through intraregional trade in Latin America and the Caribbean

Intraregional agrifood trade in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) offers untapped opportunities for expansion. Comparative advantages in food production as well as variation in consumption patterns create a high degree of complementarity across many LAC countries. Making use of this variation to expand trade within the region could improve access to, availability, and diversity of food, as well as ensure more stable food supplies. Stable supplies are particularly important for food security given the likelihood of continued shocks, such as conflicts, epidemics, economic crises, and extreme weather events. Although trade between countries in the region plays an important role as a source of imports, more than 60 percent of LAC’s food purchases come from extraregional suppliers. However, the shares of intra- and extraregional imports vary by subregion. About 60 percent of South American food imports come from regional suppliers, but only 20 percent of Mexican and Central American imports come from LAC suppliers. In the Caribbean, the share of regional suppliers in food imports has increased over the past five years but is currently only 29 percent (UN Statistics Division, UN Comtrade 2022). Most intraregional trade takes place within subregions, meaning that trade between countries from different LAC subregions is less common and thus presents the greatest opportunities for expansion. In this analysis of trade opportunities and challenges, the authors show there is potential to expand intraregional agrifood trade in major products such as corn, soybeans, soybean meal, wheat, poultry meat, milk, and concentrated cream. Facilitating intraregional trade and establishing new trade relations between LAC countries (the extensive margin of trade) where complementarities have been identified would provide opportunities for growth in the agrifood sec tors of these countries, make LAC food systems more resilient to supply shocks, and reduce food insecurity by ensuring efficient and reliable food supplies for consumers. However, despite progress in recent years, a number of factors — including high tariff rates, nontariff measures, origin requirements, government procurement rules, government support, and high transportation costs — continue to hamper the expansion of intraregional trade. This analysis focuses exclusively on intraregional trade; it does not examine opportunities for trade with partners outside the LAC region or compare opportunities for intra regional trade to extraregional trade. While such analysis could be valuable for informing trade policy, one of our primary objectives is to encourage stronger linkages between the economies of LAC countries regardless of trade opportunities outside the region. This goal reflects the expectation that improving these linkages among neighboring countries will have positive spillovers in the form of improved resilience to shocks, stronger political cohesion, and broader cooperation across these economies. \To accurately contextualize this analysis, it is necessary to highlight the diversity of food systems within LAC. While “LAC” is a standard regional classification and our analysis includes all LAC countries, the agrifood sectors, and especially agrifood trade, in the various LAC subregions face diverse challenges and opportunities. For example, these challenges and opportunities differ markedly between the Caribbean island countries and the larger Latin American countries, most notably Brazil and Argentina. These distinctions should inform the interpretation and implementation of our findings.

ANEW way forward: Strategies to promote women’s empowerment in farmer producer organizations

Women’s empowerment is both intrinsically important and instrumental to achieving agricultural development goals such as Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Target 2.3 , which seeks to increase agricultural productivity among smallholders. In line with SDG 5 ’s focus on gender equality and women’s empowerment, many agricultural development projects now explicitly include women’s empowerment objectives.

Needs and opportunities for measuring rural women’s empowerment in Guatemala: Possible applications of a Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS)

Gender equality and the empowerment of women and girls is reflected across policy priorities at global and national levels. Sustainable Development Goal 5 (SDG 5) seeks to achieve gender equality and the empowerment of all women and girls. Moreover, the Government of Guatemala, through the Presi-dential Secretariat for Women (SEPREM), has supported these priorities through the National Policy for the Promotion and Comprehensive Development of Women and the Equality of Opportunities Plan 2008-2023, particularly under its Equitable Economic and Productive Development policy line, which gives the agenda a thematic focus on women’s economic empowerment. Both policy instruments are designed to guide public institutions in achieving the goals that have been set by the Council of Minis-ters of Women of Central America and the Dominican Republic (COMMCA). Economic empowerment is one of the main lines of policy action under the Regional Policy on Gender Equality and Equity of SICA (PRIEG/SICA). As such, women’s economic empowerment is being prioritized at the national level in Guatemala, and also at the regional level across Central America and the Dominican Republic.

La igualdad de género y el empoderamiento de las mujeres y niñas se ve reflejado en distintas prioridades de políticas a nivel global y local. El Objetivo de Desarrollo Sostenible 5 busca lograr la igualdad de género y empoderar a todas las mujeres y niñas. De forma correspondiente, el Gobierno de Guatemala por medio de la Secretaría Presidencial de la Mujer (Seprem) ha impulsado el tema, tanto a través de la Política Nacional de Promoción y Desarrollo Integral de las Mujeres y su Plan de Oportunidades PNPDIM-PEO 2008-2023, dentro el Eje de Desarrollo Económico y Productivo con equidad; así como también en la agenda temática de empoderamiento económico de las mujeres. Ambos instrumentos son orientadores de las instituciones públicas, a la vez que, dentro de las acciones que se han coordinado desde el Consejo de Ministras de la Mujer de Centroamérica y República Dominicana (COMMCA), el empoderamiento económico es uno de los ejes de la Política Regional de Igualdad y Equidad de Género del SICA (PRIEG/SICA). Así, el empoderamiento económico de las mujeres es una prioridad a nivel nacional en Guatemala, pero también a nivel regional.

COVID-19 and extreme weather: Impacts on food security and migration attitudes in the rural area of Guatemala

This paper examines the continuing effects of COVID-19 and exposure to weather extremes on income, dietary, and migration outcomes in the rural area of Guatemala. We rely on a comprehensive longitudinal survey of 1,612 smallholder farmers collected over three survey rounds in 2019, 2020, and 2021. We find improvements in incomes, food security, dietary diversity, and animal source foods (ASF) consumption in 2021 relative to 2020, but with levels still below pre-pandemic ones in 2019. We also find a substantial increase in the intention to emigrate that was not observed in the onset of the pandemic. In terms of the channels mediating the variations in dietary diversity and migration intentions, income shocks seem to have played a role, in contrast to direct exposure to the virus, local mobility restrictions, and food market disruptions. Importantly, households exposed to ETA and IOTA tropical storms, in addition to COVID-19, were considerably more prone to exhibit larger increases in the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecure episodes and larger decreases in their diet quality and ASF consumption. The study provides novel evidence on vulnerable households’ wellbeing in the aftermath of a global crisis, including the effects of compound shocks.

COVID-19 and livelihoods in rural Guatemala: Lessons from a long term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound effects on livelihoods and food security across rural populations worldwide. This study offers a long-term assessment of the impacts of the pandemic and the path to recovery among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households collected over four survey rounds between 2019 and 2022. The results show substantial recoveries in incomes, food security, and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre pandemic ones. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one (San Marcos) of the three departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by the ETA and IOTA tropical storms, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations have taken longer to recover. In addition, we provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26 percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks, remarking the importance of continue monitoring the situation of vulnerable households, especially those exposed to recurrent (weather) shocks that also have a more exhausted portfolio of coping mechanisms & express a higher willingness to emigrate.

Feed the Future Guatemala Value Chains Project: Summary of impact evaluation study

Guatemala experiences high and continued chronic malnutrition and poverty rates, with a particular concentration around predominantly rural and indigenous areas in the Western Highlands. Agricultural development is similarly low in the region, with farmers generally cultivating small landholdings, showing low agricultural productivity, and having limited ability for capital investment and an overall lack of market opportunities, combined with a relatively weak government support. This brief presents the main findings of the impact evaluation of USAID’s Feed the Future (FTF) Guatemala Value Chains Project that aimed to increase agricultural incomes, strengthen resilience, and improve nutritional outcomes of small farmers and their families in the Western Highlands of the country. The Project was created in 2017, building on the successes and lessons learned from the previous five years of implementation of the FTF Initiative in Guatemala, and relying on four expected results: improving agricultural productivity and diversifying income generation alternatives; expanding access to markets; increasing resilience through implementation of climate-smart and nutrition sensitive agriculture; and strengthening the agriculture and food security enabling environment.

Report launch: The key role of trade in strengthening food security in Latin America and the Caribbean

Recent events such as the war in Ukraine and the El Niño weather cycle have demonstrated how shocks triggering changes in production and distribution of food in one country or region can reverberate around the world, eroding food security for millions if not billions. Efficient, agile, and diverse trade networks can help countries and suppliers to cope with these shocks and strengthen food security. These networks are especially relevant for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) . While it is the world’s largest net food exporting region, it has lately struggled with increasing hunger and multiple forms of malnutrition.

Forman Lecture: Simón Barquera on tackling obesity and noncommunicable diseases in Mexico

The global prevalence of overweight and obesity has nearly tripled since 1975, and these conditions now affect more than 340 million children and adolescents ages 5-19 and nearly 39 million children under 5. These conditions are linked to rising rates of noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease. This has become a serious public health problem in in low- and middle-income countries, as rising poverty and inequity, urbanization, and climate and humanitarian crises limit access to healthy diets, especially for the poorest and most marginalized.